바로가기 메뉴
본문 바로가기
메인메뉴 바로가기
PRESS RELEASES

Production and Investment Recover Due to Strong Exports while Consumption Recovery Remains Fragile

  • DivisionEconomic Policy Bureau - Economic Analysis Division
  • DateMay 12, 2017
  • Tel044-215-2736

Current Economic Situation, May 2017

 

Production and Investment Recover Due to Strong Exports

while Consumption Recovery Remains Fragile

 

 

The Korean economy has seen production and investment improve backed by strong exports and improvement in the global economy, but a recovery in domestic demand remains fragile.

 

The economy added more than 400,000 jobs for the second consecutive month in April 2017 (up 466,000 up 424,000, y-o-y), backed by a recovery in manufacturing jobs, as well as strong construction and service sectors.

 

Consumer prices rose at a slower rate in April (up 2.2% up 1.9%, y-o-y) as agricultural product prices stabilized and oil product prices increased at a slower rate.

 

Mining and manufacturing production increased 1.0 percent from the previous month in March, backed by strong exports of automobile, IT and chemical products, as well as the release of new automobile and mobile phone models.

 

Service output rose for the fifth consecutive month in March (up 0.2% → up 0.4%, m-o-m) due to strong professional, scientific & technical services and real estate & renting.

 

Retail sales stayed flat in March after posting a 3.2 percent increase in February, backed by improving consumer sentiment and the release of new automobile and mobile phone models.

 

Facility investment rebounded in March from the previous month (down 8.9% → up 12.9%, m-o-m) due to strong investment in the IT sector, such as semiconductor production facilities. Construction investment rose for the second consecutive month (up 8.0% → up 3.7%, m-o-m) due to strong private sector investment in housing construction and increased public sector investment in SOC projects.

 

In March, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.3 points from the previous month due to strong nonfarm payroll employment and construction completed. The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell 0.1 points as the ratio of job seekers to job openings increased.

 

Exports in April (up 13.6% → up 24.2%, y-o-y) increased for the sixth consecutive month and posted double-digit growth for the fourth consecutive month, due to strong main export items, such as semiconductors and flat screen displays.

 

Stock prices rose in April backed by foreign investors’ net purchase of Korean shares and improving confidence in the real economy. The dollar-won exchange rate rose due to the strong dollar.

 

Housing prices rose month-on-month in April (up 0.06% up 0.10%, m-o-m) due to seasonal demand, and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) price growth (up 0.07% up 0.07%, m-o-m) stayed stable.

 

Although the economy shows signs of improvement, such as strong exports and improving economic sentiment, there are lingering risks at home and abroad, such as recent trade issues, Fed’s rate hikes, as well as the need for qualitative improvement in the job market.

 

The government will strengthen its risk management, and will continue to work on boosting the economy and creating quality jobs through macroeconomic policies, including the supplementary budget.

 

 

Key Statistics

 

 

Employment

 

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Apr

Q1

Mar

Apr

Number of employed (million)

25.60

25.94

26.24

26.14

26.24

25.55

26.39

26.55

26.45

26.15

25.92

26.27

26.58

Employment rate (%)

60.2

60.6

60.9

60.5

60.4

59.1

60.8

61.1

60.7

60.3

59.4

60.2

60.8

(Seasonally adjusted)

60.2

60.3

60.3

60.5

60.4

60.5

60.1

60.5

60.6

60.1

60.8

61.0

60.7

 

 

Consumer Price Index

 

 

2016

2017

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

y-o-y

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.5

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.3

2.0

1.9

2.2

1.9

m-o-m

0.1

0.0

-0.2

0.3

0.6

0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.9

0.3

0.0

-0.1

 

 

Mining and Manufacturing Production

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

Mining and Manufacturing2

2016

2017

Annual

Q1

Q2

Mar

Q11

Jan

Feb1

Mar1

Mining

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-0.6

1.4

-1.1

1.5

2.8

-3.3

1.0

(y-o-y)

1.0

-0.3

0.7

-0.5

3.6

1.3

6.7

3.0

Manufacturing

Production

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-0.7

1.5

-1.0

1.5

2.8

-3.6

1.1

(y-o-y)

1.0

-0.5

0.9

-0.7

3.7

1.5

6.9

3.2

Shipment

-Domestic consumption

-Exports

0.6

1.3

-0.1

-1.8

-0.9

-3.1

2.2

1.0

4.0

1.9

3.6

-0.3

0.4

-0.1

1.0

0.5

-0.7

2.3

-2.7

-2.2

-3.2

1.1

1.3

0.9

Inventory3

-5.9

3.6

-2.3

-0.1

2.5

2.0

0.3

0.2

Average operation ratio

72.6

73.4

72.8

73.7

72.6

74.2

71.0

72.6

Production capacity

(y-o-y)

0.8

0.3

0.4

0.2

1.7

2.0

1.8

1.5

  1. 1. Preliminary

  2. 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry

  3. 3. End-period

 

 

Service Output

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Annual1

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Dec

Q11

Feb1

Mar1

Service

activity index

2.9

3.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

-0.3

0.5

0.9

0.2

0.4

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

 

Retail Sales

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Q3

Q4

Annual1

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q11

Feb1

Mar1

Retail sales

-

1.1

2.9

-

-0.2

2.0

-1.2

2.1

-0.4

3.2

0.0

(y-o-y)

4.1

3.5

6.3

4.3

5.0

5.9

3.5

2.5

2.0

0.5

1.6

  1. 1. Preliminary

     

     

Facility Investment Index

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1¹

Jan

Feb¹

Mar¹

Facility investment index

6.9

-1.3

-6.5

5.1

-1.9

8.0

5.5

1.4

-8.5

12.9

y-o-y

-

-

-7.6

0.6

-4.7

5.9

17.8

10.3

19.5

22.8

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

 

Construction Completed

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1¹

Jan¹

Feb¹

Mar¹

Construction completed (constant)

-0.7

5.0

15.4

6.2

2.3

4.2

4.1

5.7

-1.9

8.0

3.7

y-o-y

-

-

-

13.2

15.8

14.5

17.7

17.7

13.0

22.3

18.0

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

 

Composite Index of Coincident and Leading Indicators

 

 

2016

2017

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb¹

Mar¹

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

100.6

100.4

100.2

100.3

100.5

100.7

100.7

101.0

(m-o-m, %)

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.3

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index

100.1

100.3

100.5

100.5

100.6

100.7

100.9

100.8

(m-o-m, %)

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

-0.1

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

 

Exports and Imports

(US$ billion, y-o-y, %)

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Apr

Q1

Mar

Apr¹

Exports

572.66

526.76

495.43

115.19

126.02

121.85

132.36

41.08

132.33

48.85

51.01

(y-o-y)

2.3

-8.0

-5.9

-13.7

-6.7

-5.0

1.8

-11.1

14.9

13.6

24.2

Average daily exports

2.11

1.93

1.81

1.73

1.88

1.78

1.86

1.83

1.96

2.04

2.27

Imports

525.51

436.50

406.19

93.83

99.30

102.46

110.59

32.39

116.22

42.58

37.75

(y-o-y)

1.9

-16.9

-6.9

-16.0

-10.1

-5.1

4.1

-14.4

23.9

27.7

16.6

Average daily imports

1.94

1.60

1.49

1.41

1.48

1.50

1.56

1.44

1.72

1.77

1.68

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

Please refer to the attached PDF file