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PRESS RELEASES

Exports and Production Rise while Consumption Rebounds

  • DivisionEconomic Policy Bureau - Economic Analysis Division
  • DateNovember 10, 2017
  • Tel044-215-2736

Current Economic Situation, November 2017

 

Exports and Production Rise while Consumption Rebounds

 

 

The Korean economy has seen rising exports and production amid improving global economies, as well as a rebound in consumption.

 

The economy added 314,000 jobs year-on-year in September, an increase from 212,000 in the previous month when bad weather slowed job growth, backed by supplementary budget implementation.

 

Consumer prices in October rose at a slower rate compared with the previous month (up 2.1%up 1.8%, y-o-y) due to stabilizing vegetable prices and an easing base effect in electricity rates from the previous summer.

 

Mining and manufacturing production rose for the third consecutive month in September (up 0.1% up 0.1%, m-o-m) due to strong automobiles, vessels and chemical products, and service output rose for the fourth straight month (up 0.1% up 1.3%, m-o-m) backed by wholesale & retail.

 

Retail sales rebounded in September (down 0.9% up 3.1%, m-o-m) due to strong demand for Chuseok holiday-related items and smartphone sales.

 

Facility investment surged in September (down 0.7% up 5.5%, m-o-m) after declining for two straight months as investment in semiconductor manufacturing equipment rose.  Construction investment fell (down 1.7% down 2.2%, m-o-m) as housing construction edged down after rising for three months in a row.  Construction investment rose 16.1 percent compared to a year ago.

 

In September, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.1 points to 100.9, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell 0.2 points to 101.6.

 

Exports rose for the 12th straight month in October (up 35.0%→ up 7.1%, y-o-y) backed by strong major export items, such as semiconductors, vessels and petroleum products, despite less days worked.

 

In October, KOSPI increased amid rising global stock markets and expectations for improving economic conditions, and the dollar-won exchange rate fell due to easing geopolitical risks.  Government bond yields rose.

 

Housing prices rose in October (up 0.12% up 0.13%, m-o-m) as price growth in the Seoul metropolitan area picked up slightly, and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices stayed stable compared with the previous month (up 0.06% up 0.06%, m-o-m).

 

The economy is expected to stay on a recovery path due to strong exports and supplementary budget implementation.  However, internal and external risks linger, such as monetary policy normalization in major economies, trade issues and North related risks.

 

The government will strengthen its risk management, and will work to ensure that a broader society can benefit from the current economic recovery through decent jobs and a boost in the real economy by implementing supplementary budgets as planned.

 

 

Key Statistics

 

 

Employment

 

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Sep

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep

Number of employed (million)

25.60

25.94

26.24

25.55

26.39

26.55

26.45

26.53

25.92

26.75

26.83

26.74

26.84

Employment rate (%)

60.2

60.6

60.4

59.1

60.8

61.1

60.7

61.0

59.4

61.2

61.3

61.1

61.3

(Seasonally adjusted)

60.2

60.3

60.4

60.5

60.1

60.5

60.6

60.5

60.8

60.6

60.6

60.6

60.7

 

 

Consumer Price Index

 

 

2016

2017

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

y-o-y

1.5

1.5

1.3

2.0

1.9

2.2

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.2

2.6

2.1

1.8

m-o-m

0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.9

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

0.2

0.6

0.1

-0.2

 

 

Mining and Manufacturing Production

            (q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

Mining and Manufacturing2

2016

2017

Annual

Q3

Sep

Q2

Q3¹

Jul

Aug¹

Sep¹

Mining

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

0.1

0.7

-2.3

1.5

1.6

0.1

0.1

(y-o-y)

1.0

0.5

-2.0

0.5

3.5

-0.3

2.3

8.4

Manufacturing

Production

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

0.1

0.8

-2.5

1.6

1.5

0.3

0.3

(y-o-y)

1.0

0.6

-2.0

0.4

3.5

-0.4

2.5

8.7

Shipment

-Domestic consumption

-Exports

0.6

1.3

-0.1

-0.5

-0.3

-0.8

0.5

1.2

-0.4

-2.0

-2.1

-1.7

1.8

1.2

2.6

0.3

0.5

0.1

0.5

0.8

0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

Inventory3

-5.9

-3.2

-0.8

1.9

1.2

0.9

2.2

-1.9

Average operation ratio

72.6

71.9

71.6

71.5

72.3

73.1

72.0

71.8

Production capacity

(y-o-y)

0.8

1.0

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.7

1.0

1.2

  1. 1. Preliminary
  2. 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
  3. 3. End-period

 

 

Service Output

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2015

                           2016

2017

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3¹

Aug¹

Sep¹

Service

activity index

2.9

3.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

-0.3

0.9

0.6

1.4

0.1

1.3

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

 

Retail Sales

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3¹

Aug¹

Sep¹

Retail sales

-

4.3

-0.2

2.0

-1.2

2.1

-0.5

1.2

1.1

-0.9

3.1

(y-o-y)

2.0

-

5.0

5.9

3.5

2.5

1.9

1.7

4.3

0.9

8.3

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

 

Facility Investment Index

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3¹

Aug¹

Sep¹

Facility investment index

6.9

-1.3

-6.5

5.1

-1.9

8.0

5.6

4.4

-0.3

-0.7

5.5

y-o-y

-

-

-7.6

0.6

-4.7

5.9

18.1

17.7

20.7

12.5

25.2

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

 

Construction Completed

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3¹

Aug¹

Sep¹

Construction completed (constant)

5.0

15.4

6.2

2.3

4.2

4.1

5.9

-1.1

0.0

-1.7

-2.2

y-o-y

-

-

13.2

15.8

14.5

17.7

17.9

13.6

12.5

8.3

16.1

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

 

Composite Index of Coincident and Leading Indicators

 

 

2017

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

Sep¹

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

100.7

101.0

101.0

100.8

100.7

100.7

100.8

100.9

(m-o-m, %)

0.0

0.3

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index

100.9

100.8

101.0

101.2

101.6

101.7

101.8

101.6

(m-o-m, %)

0.2

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.1

0.1

-0.2

  1. 1. Preliminary

 

 

Exports and Imports

(US$ billion, y-o-y, %)

 

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Sep

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct¹

Exports

526.76

495.43

115.19

126.02

121.85

132.36

40.85

132.10

147.20

151.04

55.13

44.98

(y-o-y)

-8.0

-5.9

-13.7

-6.7

-5.0

1.8

-6.0

14.7

16.8

24.0

35.0

7.4

Average daily exports

1.93

1.81

1.73

1.88

1.78

1.86

1.95

1.96

2.21

2.13

2.35

2.50

Imports

436.50

406.19

93.83

99.30

102.46

110.59

33.99

116.25

117.34

120.71

41.67

37.65

(y-o-y)

-16.9

-6.9

-16.0

-10.1

-5.1

4.1

-1.6

23.9

18.2

17.8

22.6

22.6

Average daily imports

1.60

1.49

1.41

1.48

1.50

1.56

1.62

1.72

1.76

1.70

1.77

2.09

1. Preliminary

 

Please refer to the attached PDF